China's electrical energy faces crisis

China's electrical energy generation is facing a crisis due to the rising cost of coal. Electrical energy's price is controlled as a means for keeping inflation in check, while the coal from which 80% of the electrical energy is generated, is not controlled. Severe electrical energy shortages are occurring because the power plant operators are not inclined to sell the electrical energy at a loss. These shortages are exacerbated by the shortage of coal caused by the severe winter weather reported in the previous blog posting. Chinese government officials in Beijing are concerned.

For additional information is available from Power Engineering International.

Storms expose fragility of China's rail networks

The severe winter storms in china have had a disruptive effect upon China. Especially hit has been the rail networks, which have been unable to cope with the effects, including travelers who are trying to go home for the Chinese New Year. It has also been disruptive of electrical production which requires a steady delivery of coal to power stations for continued operation; about 40% of rail transport is used for coal hauling.

In the near future we will be going into Susan Shirk's "China Fragile Superpower," which upon a quick perusal appears to be primarily concerned with political rather than infrastructure issues. However, infrastructure issues and other areas such as environment are also important for China's continuing stability.

The January 31, 2008 issue of the International Herald Tribune, Asia-Pacific edition describes the storms effect upon the rail system.

ENVIRONMENTAL NEWS

Having a still active consulting interest in air pollution control, especially for electric power generation, I came across a pair of articles in the January 3, 2008 issue of Power Engineering International related to China. It should be noted that China, like the US has huge coal reserves. Both will be generating the majority of its electricity by coal for many years into the future, with China surpassing the US within the next few years.

1. China's first carbon capture and storage plant to be operational by 2009. In Tianjin, China’3^rd largest city, about 90 km southeast of Beijing, the world’s largest carbon dioxide (a greenhouse gas) capture and storage is planned to begin operation in 2009as a joint venture between a group of state owned enterprises and a US firm, Peabody Energy. The collected carbon from the 650 MW plant will be approximately 0.17% of the carbon emitted by coal-fired electrical generation in China. The big engineering issue will be how effectively the huge amounts of carbon dioxide, which is sequestered, can be permanently stored.

The significance of this new installation indicates an emerging interest in the potential for climate change and its effects in China. As an indication on the possible effect of rising ocean levels upon China, I roughly did an examination of Chinese costal cities and their elevation above sea level. To my surprise I saw that many were at or were even below sea level. Furthermore there were cities located upon rivers, some distance upstream of the ocean, which were also essentially at sea level. Perhaps China has recognized the potential disaster that might occur if its low-lying cities become inundated as a consequence of the ocean’s rising. Consequently they may be starting to do something about the problem and to more, importantly, set an example to the rest of the World.

2. China's Three Gorges project generates 61.6bn kWh of electricity in 2007. China's Three Gorges hydropower project generated 61.6bn kWh of electricity last year, about 25 per cent more power than in 2006, according to the operator, China Three Gorges Project Corporation. The 21 turbine/generators, currently online, produce 13,300 MW of electrical power equivalent to about 20 of the Tianjin units (see above). When outfitted with the remaining turbine/generators. by 2012, the projects power output will be increased by an additional 50%.

On the plus side the electrical power generated by Three Gorges will not be adding pollutants to the air that will affect either global climate or human health. Unfortunately there are other environmental issues surfacing, about the Three Gorges project that may eventually far outweigh the benefits.

The January 26^th-February 1^st, 2008 issue of The Economist has an interesting article on the ability of ‘The State Environmental Protection Administration (SEPA)’ to improve the severe environmental issues in China. The currently “toothless” SEPA may be raised to the ministerial level in the near future to give it more power.

In the US, the EPA operates under legislation that is backed up by the judicial arm of the Government. Judicial power can work two ways by either backing EPA decisions or by forcing it to follow the legislation. Making EPA observe the legislation will be tested once again shortly. The courts will determine whether the Bush politically appointed EPA Administrator can deny California’s request for a wavier that will allow it to control greenhouse gasses more rigorously than does Federal Legislation.

Unit 1, Lesson 2

Do you believe that a widespread and cataclysmic event such as the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution could occur again in China today? Why? Why not?

As given, the question is too general for me to answer in a finite form. I neither know enough about China, or am I clever enough, to identify the various “widespread and cataclysmic event” scenarios that might occur in that country. Therefore I will take the liberty of reframing the question so that it asks specifically whether the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution could occur again.

The short answers. Is it possible? Yes! Is it probable? No!

The basic political structure of the country has not changed enough so that a charismatic individual, knowledgeable about the ins-and-outs of the system, could build up a “cult of culture” to enable the putting of the country back on the path to communism. Of course that individual would have to get a large enough group, such as the Red guards of the original Cultural Revolution, so that it could overwhelm the political structure before the country has a chance to react and counter it.

With the above said, what has occurred in China, in the interim, which would minimize the chance for it happening? First of all, there is no Mao equivalent who has been in place from the earlier days and consequently has been able to work the system and establish the necessary “cult of personality.” An individual wanting to undertake such an effort, starting today, would require a large amount of time to pull it off. While all this has been going on China would not have been standing still and would continue on the path towards being an economic giant. Many people are becoming more prosperous and, consequently, more comfortable, and who would certainly not want to revert back to earlier times. The ratio of the urban to rural population has increased with the result that the peasants are less prominent. Unfortunately there are many who have not prospered and who might welcome a ‘class struggle,’ included, as reported in recent news articles, are members of the rural population who have been pushed aside in the name of economic progress; however, as economic prosperity continues to increase the disenfranchised may become fewer. Finally assuming some level of local ‘Cultural Revolution’ started; there is the experience of the rapid and deadly 1989 action by the PLA in Tiananmen Square, which would likely be called into play in the developing stage of the revolution.

Facetiously, since 1967 the Yangtze has become more polluted and less inviting for a swim.

The Awakened Dragon