Do you believe that a widespread and cataclysmic event such as the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution could occur again in China today? Why? Why not? As given, the question is too general for me to answer in a finite form. I neither know enough about China, or am I clever enough, to identify the various “widespread and cataclysmic event” scenarios that might occur in that country. Therefore I will take the liberty of reframing the question so that it asks specifically whether the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution could occur again.
The short answers. Is it possible? Yes! Is it probable? No!
The basic political structure of the country has not changed enough so that a charismatic individual, knowledgeable about the ins-and-outs of the system, could build up a “cult of culture” to enable the putting of the country back on the path to communism. Of course that individual would have to get a large enough group, such as the Red guards of the original Cultural Revolution, so that it could overwhelm the political structure before the country has a chance to react and counter it.
With the above said, what has occurred in China, in the interim, which would minimize the chance for it happening? First of all, there is no Mao equivalent who has been in place from the earlier days and consequently has been able to work the system and establish the necessary “cult of personality.” An individual wanting to undertake such an effort, starting today, would require a large amount of time to pull it off. While all this has been going on China would not have been standing still and would continue on the path towards being an economic giant. Many people are becoming more prosperous and, consequently, more comfortable, and who would certainly not want to revert back to earlier times. The ratio of the urban to rural population has increased with the result that the peasants are less prominent. Unfortunately there are many who have not prospered and who might welcome a ‘class struggle,’ included, as reported in recent news articles, are members of the rural population who have been pushed aside in the name of economic progress; however, as economic prosperity continues to increase the disenfranchised may become fewer. Finally assuming some level of local ‘Cultural Revolution’ started; there is the experience of the rapid and deadly 1989 action by the PLA in Tiananmen Square, which would likely be called into play in the developing stage of the revolution.
Facetiously, since 1967 the Yangtze has become more polluted and less inviting for a swim.
2 comments:
We had the same line of thinking with possible versus probable, and you took a different road to your conclusion. I think China has been contained for so long, and along with its sheer population size, it seems almost impossible for another Mao to emerge. I agree that increased prosperity, too, makes it unlikely.
I enjoyed reading your comments, and agree that as prosperity spreads across China, the possibility for revolution for economic reasons. However, there is still a great divide among the "haves" and "have-nots" in China, and this disparity may foster a resurgence of revolution along ideological lines. Maybe not likely, but given the right leader, certainly possible.
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