Changing relations!

For the UNCG MALS class, The Dragon Awakes, a question was asked: How should the US view China’s developing relations with her neighbors? Should the US modify its foreign policy toward these same nations in light of their changing relations with China?

If we do not include Japan and South Korea, with whom the US has strong relations, the areas of interest are as follows:

1. Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)

Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia,

Myanmar (Burma), Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam

2. Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) countries

China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan (China and Russia are not included for this exercise.)

China’s expanding economic strength and need for increased energy and food sources is helping it improve relations with its neighbors. At the same time these improved relations are helping alleviate its security concerns. It is apparently succeeding to a considerable degree.

In general, it is difficult to see what the US can do differentially considering its “never ending” entanglement in Afghanistan and especially Iraq. The nation is weaker both militarily and economically and is looked at suspiciously by countries that have large Moslem populations including Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Even some of the other countries have significant Moslem populations. The US should bring its engagement in both Afghanistan and Iraq to a speedy end. Using its best efforts to bring permanent peace to the Israeli-Palestinian area would also help the US improve its relations with these countries. If at the same time the US improves its economics, so that it can improve trade with these countries, the accompanying foreign policy will improve.

India is an important player in the region, which is rapidly gaining strong economic power, may at some point rival, or even exceed, that of China; its population is expected to surpass that of China in the next twenty years or-so. It is important as a counterbalance to China. The US has reasonably good relations with India. However the weakened US economy and the decreased value of the dollar is lessening the economic attractiveness of the US; on the other hand, China’s is strengthening. India also has a Muslim population of about 14%. Once again the ability of the US to improve its relationship in the Asian area goes back to both its economic situation and Iraq.

The Taiwan Straits continues to cool

One of the pillars of the campaign, in Taiwan, which led to the recent landslide win for the Presidency of Ma Ying-jeou of the Nationalist Party (KMT) was the promise to improve relationship with mainland China. The outgoing president Chen Shui-bian of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) had been pushing vigorously for Taiwan to declare itself to an independent nation, separate from mainland China. China, which has always maintained that Taiwan is part of China, has threatened to mount military action if Taiwan were to declare independence. The election of Ma has decreased the threat of an eruption in the Taiwan Strait. The trip down the road to improved relations has started.

According to Reuters, on Saturday, April 12, 2008 vice-president elect Vincent Siew had a short meeting with Hu Jintao, China’s President. Siew was attending a meeting at the high-level Boao Forum for Asia in Boao, Hainan Provence. April 11-13, Siew was attending as Chairman of the Cross-Strait Common Market Foundation., a private NGO based in Taiwan.

It is not expected that there will be any formal announcements of policy change at this time. Even though Siew was not traveling as Taiwan’s vice-president, a position that will be acquired until the inauguration on May 20^th, analysts consider the meeting to be of historic importance considering the paucity of previous hi-level meetings.

Low-cost labor disappearing in southern China

After this past New Year break between 11 to 30% percent of the migrant workers did not return to many of the factories in Guangdong province, which had been one of the areas driving the Chinese economy. The annual movement of rural migrants into the factories that churn out low-cost products, requiring low skills, is clearly decreasing. It is also estimated that 70,000 factories have closed this past year and an equal number are expected to close in the next couple of years according to The Economist.

Several factors are responsible for the decrease in the number of factories closing in southern China, which contribute to the decrease in the influx of migrant labor. The costs of labor, energy, raw materials, environmental cleanup and credit have been increasing. Adding to the burden is a decrease in exports to the U.S. and other countries, in response to the economic downturn. On top of all these problems is an effort on the part of the government to force many of the grimy, low-paying factories away from southern China and into the interior, which has not benefited from the economic growth of the lat two decades. Cleaner factories which produce higher technology products and who pay higher wages, are not having problems attracting the needed labor. The government hopes that more will come in to take the place of those that have closed.

Factories are starting to open in the interior. One of the benefits is that the migrant workers are closer to home, making it unnecessary for them to be away for a whole year at a time. An additional benefit, if factories move into the interior rural areas, is that more of the benefits of China’s upward economy will also go there.

China’s road to superpower status takes strange twists.

In an earlier blog, “China’s Position on the World Stage”, criteria given for superpower status included economic power and the ability to influence internationally appears to be accruing for China!

An article in the International Herald Tribune, “China law could impede Microsoft deal for Yahoo” illustrates China’s growing economic power and ability to project that power internationally. At issue is Microsoft's hostile-takeover attempt of Yahoo. Doing so may cause it to run up against a new Chinese anti-monopoly law that takes affect in August. In 2005 Yahoo had obtained a 40% interest in Altaba.com China’s largest e-commerce business. The law gives Chinese regulators the power to examine and act upon foreign mergers that involve companies invested in Chinese businesses.

China’s burgeoning economic powers is starting to give it regulatory influence that may eventually match those of Washington and the European Union in Brussels.

Helping China’s young advance academically

As part of an assignment for the UNCG MALS Dragon Awakes course, we were to look at two different examples of China’s young. The first was an introduction to its culture in vibrant urban Shanghai, presented by FrontlineWorld reporter Nguyen Qui Duc with the help of Mian Mian who is “a poster child for spiritual pollution” according to government censors. The young came across as a frivolous group whose driving concern was fun and pleasure. The second example was with a young person named Alex who had more serious interests.

Alex is a serious young man whose thoughts went beyond the present. He was preparing himself for a good financial future to better himself, help his family and also his country. To that end he was majoring in Computer Science in college. Alex’s parents had lived through both China’s poorer times and the Cultural Revolution which likely meant that they were more concerned with obtaining the basics needed to exist. It was obvious that the parents wanted Alex to have better and helped him obtain it. No indication was given as to what was required of the parents to help Alex with his academic career. However, other examples that we have seen indicated that the parents often had to help both by encouragement and financially. Therefore any external financial help that could be obtained would be welcome to China’s young.

What may be an emerging approach to help China’s young advance academically, thereby helping both the person and the country, are scholarships provided by outside groups. One such scholarship has been announced by Peoples Daily Online as the “PD Online Scholarship.” The degree program to promote journalism and communication will be offered online at Peking University, Tsinghua University, Renmin University of China and the Communication University of China. Perhaps the concept will spread and will help more young people like Alex pursue their ambitions.

China’s Position on the World Stage.

With China's current internal problems, should its world power status be reconsidered? Can China successfully overcome these difficulties to achieve such status on the world stage?

For many years the two world superpowers were the U.S. and the Soviet Union. More recently the Soviet Union had dissolved leaving and a number of newly independent states.” This left only the U.S. as the single superpower. In even more recent times China’s remarkable economic expansion on to the world stage has led to speculation as to whether it is heading to superpower status. On the other hand, China’s current internal problems add some pause to its readiness to reach that spire.

To judge China’s status, a definition of what is a superpower is needed. One by Lyman Miller¹, which is generally accepted, says a superpower “is a country that has the capacity to project dominating power and influence anywhere in the world, and sometimes, in more than one region of the globe at a time, and so may plausibly attain the status of global hegemon.”¹ Does China fulfill the requirements of the definition?

Miller’s article first examined what was the basis, in the past, which made certain countries superpowers. Included were economic, ability to influence internationally, projecting of military strength. China is becoming strong economically, but it is far from being a leader. The ability to influence internationally is primarily vested in its permanent seat on the UN Security Council. China’s increasing military strength is still tailored for regional operation with special emphasis on the Taiwan Strait. All-in-all Miller says that China’s emergence, though spectacular, only allows it to be considered as a strong regional power rather than as a superpower. Perhaps someday, but not today! Additionally, nowhere among the parameters was internal problems considered as a factor.

The March 15, 2008 issue of the Economist² contains a special report titled “A Ravenous Dragon,” consisting of 8 interesting articles. It discusses China’s hunger for commodities to stoke their energy and industrial growth. Included among the commodities are oil, coal and metal ores including, among others, iron, aluminum, copper, zinc. Pertinent to this blog is the indication that China is setting up operations in a number of countries, including some with nasty governments, to aid them in their commodity procurement. This will enable China to increasingly be able to project its power internationally. The commodities that are coming back to China will primarily feed its growing heavy industry. The growth of heavy industry is adding to the huge environmental problems that China and its people are currently suffering. At the same time the growth of industry is adding to the turbulent social problem, especially the growing economic disparity between the urban and rural areas.

Can China’s current internal problems derail its present course to a stronger power status? Anything that could upset the political system within China, especially if it has characteristics that were as disruptive as the Cultural Revolution and Tiananmen Square Massacre, could slow down progress towards world power status. To calm its current internal problems, China will have to take some serious steps that will require the expenditure of a significant portion of its big economic growth. Indications are that China is starting to take its problems seriously. The question is will it be sufficient? What should also be considered is that the defining properties of world power status do not include internal or domestic problems; they are only of concern if they distract the country from its track to world status. In any event with China’s mounting presence on the world stage, being fed by the very powerful economic engine, it seems unlikely to be stopped!

1. Lyman Miller, China an Emerging Superpower? Stanford Journal of International Relations, Winter 2005.
2. Economist, (Go to website to locate March 15, 2008 issue, which contains Special Report consisting of 8 articles).

Taiwan's quest for independence likely to wane after election

It appears that with the forthcoming March 22, 2008 presidential election that, no matter who wins, there will be a push for closer ties with mainland China. Thus Taiwan will shift in the opposite direction from which the outgoing president Chen Shui-bian has been moving. Chen had gone so far as to put a referendum on the ballot to determine if Taiwan should apply for membership in the United Nations under its own name rather than the Republic of China.

According to the International Herald-Tribune, the two candidates, Ma Ying-jeou and Frank Hsieh have campaigned on bringing Taiwan closer to China and away from separatism. They differ on the degree of closeness and to the timing. After the election it is expected that the Taiwanese government will move to defuse the tensions that have been raised by Chen.

Ma represents the Nationalist Party or Kuomintang, while Hsieh represents the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) of outgoing President Chen. Ma is currently favored to win the election. Hsieh campaigned in the shadow of Chen, whose second term has been rocked by scandal. It is further expected that if Ma is elected rapport with China will likely move forward more rapidly.

Are conditions ripe for levying environmental tax in China?

China is casting about for ways to decrease their environmental pollution. Jia Kang a member of the 11th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), the top advisory body of the country, announced that time is ripe for the country to levy a tax on pollution emissions, according to the Peoples Daily Online.

According to Jia, the tax should be “levied on discharge of pollutants including waste water, waste gas and solid waste, together with carbon dioxide emission.”

The first trick is to get an accurate assessment on the amount of pollutants discharged from a plant. Then determine the cost of controlling the discharge of the pollutants. Finally, set the tax level so that it is cheaper to install the proper technology than to continue to discharge and still pay the tax. In some cases the proper business decision might be to close down the plant rather than installing very expensive technology or paying very high taxes. Market forces will make the decision.

A pollution fee or tax mechanism is not used in the U.S. The closest thing to it would be fines levied by either EPA or the states, depending on the legislation that controls it.

The second trick is to define who monitors the discharge of pollutants. It could be the plant itself would be self-monitoring. See Cassie Tighe’s Blog #4 “China to Log its Worst Polluters.” It would be similar to asking a company to monitor itself on a voluntary basis, much like what our current Administration likes to do. Of course the results would be a joke. The job could also be given to the local authorities, which will also be a joke. The best approach would be to properly arm SEPA and give them the authority and personnel to monitor, enforce and levy the tax.

Will China bite the environmental bullet?

China is starting to realize that to go to a cleaner environment and to increase its energy efficiency is going to be costly. They estimate that the cost will be $300 billion over the next 5 years. They believe that supplying the technology will provide business opportunities. See Peoples Daily Online article, "Cost of going green."

They claim that “China has vowed to cut its per-unit energy consumption by about 20 percent and discharge of pollutants by 10 percent between 2006 and 2010.” These are modest targets indeed; in the end they will likely require more stringent cuts. As the economy grows and more energy generation and industrial sources are opened in a fixed land area, the emissions from individual sources will have to be reduced so as to allow maintaining healthy ambient air quality levels. The issue of what will be the allowable emissions from individual will become more critical as more automobiles go onto the roads.

Concern was expressed on how to impose the cost on among those who nay have more-or-less ability to adsorb the costs. Policymakers are urged to develop fiscal and tax incentives to ease the cost burden. It sounds almost capitalistic, doesn’t it

Instead the Chinese policymakers should arm the State Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) with the necessary regulating, monitoring and enforcement powers, and tools perhaps modeled after the U.S. EPA. Once this is done SEPA could be provided with enough staff to fulfill the emission. With such a scenario, Chinese industry, using the same abilities that promoted the huge economic expansion, will bring pollution under control in a relatively rapid order.

Can China do it? Article 26 of China’s Constitution says it can!

“Article 26. The state protects and improves the living environment and the ecological environment, and prevents and controls pollution and other public hazards. The state organizes and encourages afforestation and the protection of forests.”

China’s role in stable global grain prices

Recently there has been a global upsurge of inflation in food prices, especially for grains. Grains are so important, that increases in their cost ultimately affect other food prices, especially meat products. Globalization has become such a strong force that the effects of ones segment of the globe could affect the world.

Concerns have been expressed about the roles of countries such as China and India whose burgeoning economies, from their globalization roles, in pushing up the prices of foods, petroleum and other commodities. If China does not address these concerns, it will be subjected to continuing criticism from the global community.

In Peoples Daily Online, according to its Ministry of Agriculture, China is a net exporter of grains. It has increased production from its arable lands and has even built up a stored surplus. By it reckoning, it is therefore not contributing to the increase of cereal prices.

If the above is correct, China should be commended for their having achieved self-sufficiency in grains. However, before giving them credit for having done so, other aspects of globalization has to be looked at before the book is closed on the subject and China is let off the hook. How much meat products are being imported, that is dependent upon grains and cereals? What are the effects of rising energy costs, especially from petroleum, that China is contributing to? The answer is not simple!

China's eye popper

The current issue of the Economist contains an informative article Rushing on by road, rail and air that lays out the huge growth in China's infrastructure. Reading the article adds to our knowledge of the huge effect of China's growth upon its human population.

The eye-opener, for me, was the last paragraph which mentions China's plan for building an express highway from Beijing to Taipei in Taiwan to be completed by 2030. It does not mention either an agreement will be reached with Taiwan or how it will traverse the 150 km Taiwan Strait.

Coal and electric power in China

China’s burgeoning demand for electrical energy is straining the country’s ability to provide the coal that is needed to fire the power plant boilers; about 80% of the country’s electrical energy comes from coal. Coal mining in China is a deadly industry with last year’s toll being 3,786 killed in mine accidents. Unfortunately, it is liable to get worse as many unsafe mines are opened to meet the growing need. What is not being publicized in the news announcements, such as in a recent New York Times article, is that in addition to the horrible human cost in mining, is the likely effect upon both the power generation and the environment.

The majority of coal-fired electric generating plants (90%+) use an electrostatic precipitator (ESP)to remove the fine fly ash particles from the gas stream before it exits the stack. Most power plants, in our country, and many others, design and optimize the boiler and ESP, plus auxiliaries including the coal pulverizer, air preheater and ash handling system, for a specific coal, which is used exclusively for the operating life of the power station.

From the New York Times article, I concluded that many Chinese power stations will be making “spot” purchases of coal, to keep operating, rather than relying on long-term contracts. In other words the coal purchased one-month could be different than the coal purchased the following month. What does this mean?

China has a huge variation in their coals, with different compositions and heat values. For example in a plant set–up for a low ash coal that switches to one with a high ash having a lower heat value, because of what is available on the “spot’ market that month, will mean that the power generated by the station will be de-rated because less heat energy is available from the coal that could be fed to the boiler. The additional fly ash could overwhelm the ESP. If, at the same time, the sulfur and trace sodium in the new coal is significantly lower, the operation of the ESP will be worsened even further. Particulate emissions from some plants could increase by a factor of 2 to 4, or even more. Fine particulates emissions currently cause many early deaths in China. This is why, in our country, there is a stringent, generally enforced, particulate National Ambient Air Quality Standard based upon particles of 2.5 μm or less.

From everything that I hear, the push in China today is for more, more, more electrical generation. To keep the power stations going, mine safety, decreased generation from some stations and worsened emissions will follow behind.

Constitution of the People's Republic of China

To further understand the working of the Government of modern China, I found online the current Chinese Constitution, adopted on December 4, 1982. I did not go through it in detail, but what I did see was illuminating, especially Articles 56 to 68.

The ruling body in China is the National Peoples Congress (NPC), which has the power to do virtually anything that it wants. The NPC, from its members, populates the Standing Committee, consisting of the Chairman, Vice-Chairmen and Secretary-General, plus some additional members; it is where decisions are made. Delegates to the NPC are elected, under the eye of the Standing Committee, by the” provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government, and by the armed forces;” no specific instructions appear in the Constitution to govern how delegates are elected to the NPC.

Amendments to the Constitution are made by the NPC; they can therefore change the Constitution whenever the situation requires it. Since this constitution was adapted in 1882, four amendments have been added. The 1^st, adopted on April 12, 1988, is of particular interest to us because it introduced a parallel market force (capitalist) driven economy "The State permits the private sector of the economy to exist and develop within the limits prescribed by law. The private sector of the economy is a complement to the socialist public economy. The State protects the lawful rights and interests of the private sector of the economy, and exercises guidance, supervision and control over the private sector of the economy"

As the country develops further, significant conflicts may arise between the two the two political philosophies being practiced in China – socialist /communist or capitalist. At some point the Chinese may have to decide what they are.

Chinese New Year

With the Chinese New Year upon us an interesting and light story "How the Grinch Stole Chinese New Year,"appeared in Slate by April Rabkin, about how its celebration has changed over the years. Ms. Rabkin has appeared to have done her home work.

Mao's swim

On July 16, 1966 it was reported that Mao Zedong swam in the Yangtze River at Wuhan. The reported event was a masterpiece by showing that Mao, then 73, was strong and was a force to be reckoned with. It helped provide further rapport with China’s youth, for his forthcoming Cultural Revolution. In some respects the reported facts about the swim was just too spectacular. I have tried to do some more studying of the actual event, mainly on the internet. Unfortunately, nothing emerged that can be traced directly back to the event. But I do want to share what I have learned,

First, here is some of the information that I have gathered from two sources listed below and others, from Google Earth’s view of Wuhan (attached).Swimming the Yangtze at Wuhan was an event that has been going on for some time; Mao swam at Wuhan at least twice previously. The distance swam has been reported as 10 miles, 15 km, and 30 li, all of which are approximately the same distance. The time in the water was 65 minutes much of which time he floated along rather than swim. The start of the swim was at the First Bridge, which Mao had dedicated some years earlier. The width of the Yangtze is approximately 1 km. A reported river current velocity, for one of the swimming events, after some period of rain was 2.06 m/s. The time for the 1500 meter men’s freestyle record is a bit over 14 minutes, which for steady swimming would require in excess of 140 minutes and super-human capability to swim 15 km.

With the above information in hand and without trying to be very scientific, I would like to try and make some sense out of Mao’s swim. Mao did not swim steadily for 15 km. Assuming that he allowed himself to be carried along by the current and using the 2.06 m/s velocity, he would have been carried about 8000m (8 km) in 65 minutes that would have required an additional 7 k m of swimming and which would probably be beyond the capability of a world champion swimmer. Therefore Mao was either in the water for more than 65 minutes or else he did not go for 15 km. If the water velocity had been greater than 2.06 m/s, a very dangerous current in excess of 5 m/s would have been required to carry him far downstream..

This exercise is not meant to denigrate Mao’s accomplishment and the very important historical importance of it. It is meant to better understand the physical aspects of the swim and to suggest that in the news release that perhaps the facts were stretched a bit.

Some of my sources are Times Asia and the official Wuhan Municipality website. Notice the small map of the Yangtze River, First Bridge and typical swim paths that are on the order of a couple of kilo meters. The small map can be compared from the Google Earth Wuhan image from which the river width was determined.

China's electrical energy faces crisis

China's electrical energy generation is facing a crisis due to the rising cost of coal. Electrical energy's price is controlled as a means for keeping inflation in check, while the coal from which 80% of the electrical energy is generated, is not controlled. Severe electrical energy shortages are occurring because the power plant operators are not inclined to sell the electrical energy at a loss. These shortages are exacerbated by the shortage of coal caused by the severe winter weather reported in the previous blog posting. Chinese government officials in Beijing are concerned.

For additional information is available from Power Engineering International.

Storms expose fragility of China's rail networks

The severe winter storms in china have had a disruptive effect upon China. Especially hit has been the rail networks, which have been unable to cope with the effects, including travelers who are trying to go home for the Chinese New Year. It has also been disruptive of electrical production which requires a steady delivery of coal to power stations for continued operation; about 40% of rail transport is used for coal hauling.

In the near future we will be going into Susan Shirk's "China Fragile Superpower," which upon a quick perusal appears to be primarily concerned with political rather than infrastructure issues. However, infrastructure issues and other areas such as environment are also important for China's continuing stability.

The January 31, 2008 issue of the International Herald Tribune, Asia-Pacific edition describes the storms effect upon the rail system.

ENVIRONMENTAL NEWS

Having a still active consulting interest in air pollution control, especially for electric power generation, I came across a pair of articles in the January 3, 2008 issue of Power Engineering International related to China. It should be noted that China, like the US has huge coal reserves. Both will be generating the majority of its electricity by coal for many years into the future, with China surpassing the US within the next few years.

1. China's first carbon capture and storage plant to be operational by 2009. In Tianjin, China’3^rd largest city, about 90 km southeast of Beijing, the world’s largest carbon dioxide (a greenhouse gas) capture and storage is planned to begin operation in 2009as a joint venture between a group of state owned enterprises and a US firm, Peabody Energy. The collected carbon from the 650 MW plant will be approximately 0.17% of the carbon emitted by coal-fired electrical generation in China. The big engineering issue will be how effectively the huge amounts of carbon dioxide, which is sequestered, can be permanently stored.

The significance of this new installation indicates an emerging interest in the potential for climate change and its effects in China. As an indication on the possible effect of rising ocean levels upon China, I roughly did an examination of Chinese costal cities and their elevation above sea level. To my surprise I saw that many were at or were even below sea level. Furthermore there were cities located upon rivers, some distance upstream of the ocean, which were also essentially at sea level. Perhaps China has recognized the potential disaster that might occur if its low-lying cities become inundated as a consequence of the ocean’s rising. Consequently they may be starting to do something about the problem and to more, importantly, set an example to the rest of the World.

2. China's Three Gorges project generates 61.6bn kWh of electricity in 2007. China's Three Gorges hydropower project generated 61.6bn kWh of electricity last year, about 25 per cent more power than in 2006, according to the operator, China Three Gorges Project Corporation. The 21 turbine/generators, currently online, produce 13,300 MW of electrical power equivalent to about 20 of the Tianjin units (see above). When outfitted with the remaining turbine/generators. by 2012, the projects power output will be increased by an additional 50%.

On the plus side the electrical power generated by Three Gorges will not be adding pollutants to the air that will affect either global climate or human health. Unfortunately there are other environmental issues surfacing, about the Three Gorges project that may eventually far outweigh the benefits.

The January 26^th-February 1^st, 2008 issue of The Economist has an interesting article on the ability of ‘The State Environmental Protection Administration (SEPA)’ to improve the severe environmental issues in China. The currently “toothless” SEPA may be raised to the ministerial level in the near future to give it more power.

In the US, the EPA operates under legislation that is backed up by the judicial arm of the Government. Judicial power can work two ways by either backing EPA decisions or by forcing it to follow the legislation. Making EPA observe the legislation will be tested once again shortly. The courts will determine whether the Bush politically appointed EPA Administrator can deny California’s request for a wavier that will allow it to control greenhouse gasses more rigorously than does Federal Legislation.

Unit 1, Lesson 2

Do you believe that a widespread and cataclysmic event such as the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution could occur again in China today? Why? Why not?

As given, the question is too general for me to answer in a finite form. I neither know enough about China, or am I clever enough, to identify the various “widespread and cataclysmic event” scenarios that might occur in that country. Therefore I will take the liberty of reframing the question so that it asks specifically whether the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution could occur again.

The short answers. Is it possible? Yes! Is it probable? No!

The basic political structure of the country has not changed enough so that a charismatic individual, knowledgeable about the ins-and-outs of the system, could build up a “cult of culture” to enable the putting of the country back on the path to communism. Of course that individual would have to get a large enough group, such as the Red guards of the original Cultural Revolution, so that it could overwhelm the political structure before the country has a chance to react and counter it.

With the above said, what has occurred in China, in the interim, which would minimize the chance for it happening? First of all, there is no Mao equivalent who has been in place from the earlier days and consequently has been able to work the system and establish the necessary “cult of personality.” An individual wanting to undertake such an effort, starting today, would require a large amount of time to pull it off. While all this has been going on China would not have been standing still and would continue on the path towards being an economic giant. Many people are becoming more prosperous and, consequently, more comfortable, and who would certainly not want to revert back to earlier times. The ratio of the urban to rural population has increased with the result that the peasants are less prominent. Unfortunately there are many who have not prospered and who might welcome a ‘class struggle,’ included, as reported in recent news articles, are members of the rural population who have been pushed aside in the name of economic progress; however, as economic prosperity continues to increase the disenfranchised may become fewer. Finally assuming some level of local ‘Cultural Revolution’ started; there is the experience of the rapid and deadly 1989 action by the PLA in Tiananmen Square, which would likely be called into play in the developing stage of the revolution.

Facetiously, since 1967 the Yangtze has become more polluted and less inviting for a swim.

The Awakened Dragon