Changing relations!

For the UNCG MALS class, The Dragon Awakes, a question was asked: How should the US view China’s developing relations with her neighbors? Should the US modify its foreign policy toward these same nations in light of their changing relations with China?

If we do not include Japan and South Korea, with whom the US has strong relations, the areas of interest are as follows:

1. Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)

Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia,

Myanmar (Burma), Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam

2. Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) countries

China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan (China and Russia are not included for this exercise.)

China’s expanding economic strength and need for increased energy and food sources is helping it improve relations with its neighbors. At the same time these improved relations are helping alleviate its security concerns. It is apparently succeeding to a considerable degree.

In general, it is difficult to see what the US can do differentially considering its “never ending” entanglement in Afghanistan and especially Iraq. The nation is weaker both militarily and economically and is looked at suspiciously by countries that have large Moslem populations including Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Even some of the other countries have significant Moslem populations. The US should bring its engagement in both Afghanistan and Iraq to a speedy end. Using its best efforts to bring permanent peace to the Israeli-Palestinian area would also help the US improve its relations with these countries. If at the same time the US improves its economics, so that it can improve trade with these countries, the accompanying foreign policy will improve.

India is an important player in the region, which is rapidly gaining strong economic power, may at some point rival, or even exceed, that of China; its population is expected to surpass that of China in the next twenty years or-so. It is important as a counterbalance to China. The US has reasonably good relations with India. However the weakened US economy and the decreased value of the dollar is lessening the economic attractiveness of the US; on the other hand, China’s is strengthening. India also has a Muslim population of about 14%. Once again the ability of the US to improve its relationship in the Asian area goes back to both its economic situation and Iraq.